By JOHN P. TRETBAR
January 22nd, 2019
Baker Hughes reported a huge drop in its weekly rotary rig count on Friday: 1,050 active rigs. That’s down 21 oil rigs and four gas rigs. Texas was down eleven rigs and Oklahoma was down ten. Independent Oil and Gas Service reported a ten percent drop weekly count of active Kansas operators. There are five active drilling rigs in eastern Kansas, down four for the week, and 28 west of Wichita, which is unchanged. Operators are about to spud two new wells in Barton County and one in Ellis County.
Out of 18 permits for drilling at new locations approved in the last week, just one was east of Wichita. There were 17 in Western Kansas, including two new permits in Barton County and one in Stafford County.
Independent Oil & Gas Service reported eleven new well completions for the week in eastern Kansas. There was one producing well reported in Ellis County out of 16 completions west of Wichita. Six of those sixteen were dry holes. Of the 98 wells completed so far this year, 20 came up dry.
U.S. crude production last year saw record growth to record heights, 10.9 million barrels per day, up 1.6 million barrels per day over the year before. The Energy Information Administration now predicts U.S. production will jump to 12.1 million barrels per day this year and up to 12.9 million next year.
U.S. crude oil production spiked again last week, reaching an all-time record. The Energy Information Administration said domestic production was more than 11.9 million barrels per day, up 202-thousand barrels from the week before and more than 2.1 million barrels more than a year ago at this time.
EIA’s monthly price forecast predicts London Brent will average $61 a barrel this year, with West Texas Intermediate about eight dollars less. But by the end of the year EIA predicts that spread between benchmarks will shrink to four dollars, with WTI at $61 and London Brent at $65 a barrel by the end of 2020.
Crude oil inventories dropped 2.7 million barrels from the previous week but remained about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. The government said crude imports averaged 7.5 million barrels per day last week, down by 319,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports last year dropped dramatically, down 1.6 million barrels per day from the year before at 2.4 million barrels per day. The government says net imports will continue to fall to an average 1.1 million barrels per day this year, and predicts less than 100-thousand barrels per day in 2020 as the U.S. As we told you back in November, the United States was briefly a net exporter of crude and petroleum products. EIA now predicts that will happen again during the fourth quarter of 2020.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says domestic refineries will be much busier by the end of this year. That’s when a new international agreement lowers the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used in ocean-going vessels. EIA says total U.S. refinery runs will spike four percent to a record 17.9 million barrels per day in 2020. Beginning next year, the International Maritime Organization is lowering the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% for ocean-going vessels.
The Colorado Supreme Court says state law does not allow regulators to make public health and the environment their top priority when setting rules for oil and gas drilling. The ruling said state law requires regulators to “foster” oil and gas production, while protecting public health and the environment. But the court says regulators must take into account whether those protections are cost-effective and technically feasible. The ruling is a victory for the industry.
North Dakota reported another record month for oil and gas production. The Department of Mineral Resources says the state produced more than 1.39 million barrels per day in October, the latest numbers available. November will not be far behind, with a preliminary estimate of 1.37 million barrels per day. The state also posted records in October for natural-gas production, permits, and the number of producing wells. The statewide gas-capture rate is going down since regulators relaxed the rules. Operators burned off more than 21% of the gas produced at oil wells in the state in November.
The Association of American Railroads reports continued growth in oil-by-rail shipments in the U.S. and Canada. Domestic traffic for the week ending January 5 was up 25% over a year ago. Oil by rail in Canada is up nearly 52% over last year, as pipeline capacity shortages continue to slow deliveries.
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